Macroeconomics

Iran issued new banknotes with a denomination of 10 million rials this week, but their actual purchasing power is only about $7, revealing severe inflation issues. In response to the impacts of war and sanctions, many people have faced long queues at banks to withdraw cash. Prolonged economic downturn and systemic corruption have further led to depreciation of the rial.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

The recent decline in silver prices, driven by global market volatility and changing investor sentiment, raises concerns about broader market implications. This correction may influence capital allocation across various asset classes, including digital assets.

Oil price surges have played a significant role in shaping global financial markets during periods of economic stress. One of the most well-known examples is the 1973 Oil Crisis, when sharp increases in oil prices triggered inflation, reduced economic activity, and led to a substantial decline in st

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

The macro risk of Bitcoin is rooted in the nearly depleted liquidity buffer within the financial system rather than oil price fluctuations. With the Fed's reverse repo mechanism losing effectiveness, Bitcoin's reliance on macro liquidity increases, raising concerns about potential market shocks and their impact.

Gold has declined to $4,500 since late February 2026 due to geopolitical conflicts, with global capital markets in turmoil, the S&P 500 down 5%. U.S. Treasury yields are rising, safe-haven assets are underperforming, and capital flows into money market funds have reached historic highs, indicating a market preference for "cash is king." Bitcoin is experiencing volatility and has not yet established itself as a safe-haven asset.

Rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict are heightening inflation concerns, affecting investor behavior and prompting risk aversion in markets, especially cryptocurrencies. Policymakers remain cautious, suggesting potential delays in rate cuts amid worsening inflation forecasts from the IMF.

Facing energy supply disruptions and soaring oil prices in the Middle East region, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed 10 emergency measures to reduce oil demand in road transportation and other sectors. Recommendations include remote work for households, reducing highway speed limits, vehicle traffic restrictions, and reducing business air travel, with the aim of moderating inflationary pressure and stabilizing markets.

Since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, causing dramatic shifts in global capital markets. Gold and US Treasury bonds have shown weakening hedging effects, while the US S&P 500 Index has declined 4%, indicating asset repricing. Capital flows have moved toward money market funds with high liquidity, signaling that markets have entered a defensive "cash is king" phase. Bitcoin has posted modest gains but faces continued risks.

Morgan Stanley has pushed back its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to September and December, as oil price increases driven by Middle East geopolitical conflicts have raised inflation expectations and constrained the scope for accommodative policy. Market reaction shows weakening expectations for rate cuts, with the timing of future cuts dependent on inflation data and economic performance.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

Bitcoin price plunges sharply to approximately $70,400; BlackRock's Ethereum staking fund surpasses $250 million in assets under management in its first week, with a staking rate as high as 95%. Morgan Stanley has submitted a revised proposal for a spot Bitcoin ETF. U.S. stocks decline significantly due to geopolitical impacts, with market confidence weakening; it is recommended to control leverage ratios for hedging purposes.

Rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict are heightening inflation concerns, affecting investor behavior and prompting risk aversion in markets, especially cryptocurrencies. Policymakers remain cautious, suggesting potential delays in rate cuts amid worsening inflation forecasts from the IMF.

Trump is calling for the Federal Reserve to immediately convene a special meeting to cut rates, emphasizing that now is the time for action and noting that lower interest rates would help reduce national debt servicing costs and stimulate the economy. Despite his pressure, market expectations for this rate cut remain low, as the Federal Reserve faces challenges from inflation and rising oil prices and may not quickly adjust policy. The crypto market has already priced in expectations of no rate cut, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve's future policy direction.

Yesterday, BTC fell from $73,000 to $71,000 due to declining US stocks and deteriorating Middle East conditions, with risk-off sentiment heating up in the market. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with Powell emphasizing that the US employment market and energy crisis make decision-making difficult, indicating uncertain economic prospects ahead that could impact both stock and crypto markets.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

US national debt surpassed $39 trillion in early March, reigniting discussions on fiscal stability. Budget deficits and large-scale spending programs have accelerated debt expansion, causing government interest expenses to compress investment space. This situation has sparked market interest in assets like Bitcoin, though short-term movements are not necessarily stable. Policymakers face choices between cutting spending, raising taxes, or continued borrowing, with structural reforms viewed as a long-term solution, though implementation remains challenging.

US federal debt surpassed $39 trillion for the first time, with 30-year Treasury yields climbing to nearly 4.9%. Despite deteriorating fiscal prospects, overseas holdings of US Treasuries increased by $34.8 billion in January, defying the trend and signaling robust foreign demand for US debt. Analysts note that holdings of US Treasuries are driven not only by attractive yields but also by their unparalleled liquidity. The complex signals sent by high debt levels and elevated yields will shape future market directions.

On March 18, Iran attacked Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, a globally important liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. Market concerns about energy supply disruptions have driven oil prices higher. This incident has triggered a systemic supply storm, impacting aviation, logistics, and consumer goods industries. The cryptocurrency market may experience volatility due to risk-off sentiment, with potential long-term benefits from quantitative easing policies. Qatar and Japan are particularly vulnerable in the supply disruption, and supply chain resilience will be tested.

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Fed Chair Powell pointing out the uncertainty of war on inflation. The three major U.S. stock indices fell, with Bitcoin temporarily pulling back to $70,500. February PPI rose more than expected, oil prices surged to $107, intensifying inflation concerns. Market confidence has not fully recovered, though institutional fund inflows into Bitcoin ETFs indicate warming sentiment.

The crypto market experienced a sharp decline on the evening of the 18th, with Bitcoin falling below $71,000 and Ethereum dropping to $2,200. The causes include U.S. PPI data exceeding expectations, which reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts; escalating Middle East conflicts increasing geopolitical risks; and gridlock in the U.S. Congress over crypto regulations. Market sentiment was severely damaged, with 110,000 people liquidated in just 4 hours, resulting in losses of $300 million.

On the evening of March 18, the cryptocurrency market experienced severe volatility, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeting. Global liquidation amounts approached 3 billion dollars, and over 100,000 investors were forced to liquidate their positions. The market remains sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate policy and geopolitical impacts, with concentrated long leveraged positions triggering a cascade effect. Even on decentralized trading platforms, massive loss events remind the market that risks persist.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

Iran conflict leads to Strait of Hormuz blockade, impacting global fertilizer supply chains and other markets. Urea prices have surged to $601, affecting agricultural production costs. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil approaches $90, and Bitcoin has also risen due to safe-haven demand, demonstrating market interconnectedness. The urea price increase is primarily driven by its production dependence on natural gas, with the blockade directly affecting transportation routes.

Recent reasons for Bitcoin's decline include geopolitical conflict uncertainty triggered by the death of Iranian wartime official Larijani, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices above $100, exacerbating inflation pressures and reducing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, as well as institutional capital withdrawal. On the technical side, $72,000 is an important support level, and a break below could lead to further exploration toward $64,000.

Trump is calling for the Federal Reserve to immediately convene a special meeting to cut rates, emphasizing that now is the time for action and noting that lower interest rates would help reduce national debt servicing costs and stimulate the economy. Despite his pressure, market expectations for this rate cut remain low, as the Federal Reserve faces challenges from inflation and rising oil prices and may not quickly adjust policy. The crypto market has already priced in expectations of no rate cut, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve's future policy direction.

The crypto market is experiencing gains amid rising diesel and gasoline prices in the US. BTC and ETH lead this upward trend, while gold and silver also see increases. However, market volatility persists due to inflation concerns and geopolitical factors.

US cryptocurrency spot ETFs showed a significant rebound last week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum recording net inflows of approximately $763.4 million and $160.9 million respectively, with prices bouncing back accordingly. Although the market is showing incremental buying signals, it still faces variables from central bank policies and geopolitical risks in the future. The market will continue to monitor ETF capital inflows and macroeconomic impacts.

Wall Street analyst Tom Lee predicts that U.S. stocks will experience a 20% crash after reaching new highs, while believing that high oil prices are actually beneficial for U.S. stocks. He points out that speculative bubbles in the market have been cleared, and tech stocks are currently a good buying opportunity on dips. Additionally, after the crypto market's harsh winter, speculative behavior has been significantly reduced.

Week three of the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is nearly closed, oil prices break through $100 per barrel, impacting global oil supply. Trump says the end of the war will depend on his "gut feeling," financial markets face uncertainty, rising oil prices could push up US inflation, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin are also affected.

Crypto prices are recovering, led by ETH's 7.56% increase. Anticipation builds for a potential rate cut by the US Fed in September, as consumer sentiment declines amidst concerns over personal finances and geopolitical issues.

Under the influence of capital inflows into U.S. spot cryptocurrency ETFs, Bitcoin prices stabilized last week and touched a high of 73,927 USD, with gains of approximately 6% to 7%. Ethereum also rebounded, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite. ETF capital inflows became the main support factor. Despite volatility in macroeconomic market sentiment, reassuring commentary on inflation and oil price risks helped stabilize prices.

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could impact Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. If transportation is disrupted, rising energy prices and inflation will tighten financial markets, causing investors to reduce risk asset exposure. Bitcoin, being a risk asset, may face short-term downward pressure following such impacts. Open interest and funding rates will become important indicators, signaling market risks.

Since September 2025, the DeFi market has entered a "interest rate winter," with the annualized deposit yields of mainstream stablecoins dropping to lows, and supply and demand imbalances causing excess liquidity. As borrowing demand declines, stablecoin lending rates have also decreased, and the reduced risk appetite in the crypto market has led investors to shift toward more stable assets. Some protocols, such as Sky, offer stable returns through real-world assets, but the overall trend still indicates a period of adjustment and structural reform in DeFi.

The US January Core PCE inflation rate came in at 3.1% year-over-year, remaining elevated and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, which could create macroeconomic pressure on the crypto market. Both services and goods prices increased, indicating that sticky inflation concerns remain unresolved. Analysts point out that this increase may be influenced by seasonal factors, but the market should remain vigilant against short-term volatility risks.

The U.S. is about to release the January PCE price index, with core PCE expected to increase 3.1% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since 2024 and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Due to different weighting allocations of items between CPI and PCE, their trends have diverged, and the "moderate" convention of PCE is also being challenged, which may impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the future.

The MOVE Index surged 21% on March 12, signaling that inflation concerns are spreading to global bond markets. Options data for Bitcoin and Ethereum show conservative market sentiment, with put ratios rising. Despite increased financial risks, implied volatility in crypto markets remains relatively stable, but if US Treasury volatility continues to rise, it could put pressure on crypto markets. Overall, the market currently maintains a cautious stance toward risk assets.

The bubble threat “Stupid” macro data Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller predicted that crypto could eventually supplant the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency Druckenmiller is doubtful about the greenback’s ability to maintain its much-coveted status 50 years from now "I do

The U.S. government recently revealed that the initial six days of the U.S.-Iran conflict cost $11.3 billion, equivalent to approximately 48.9% of its Bitcoin holdings' market value. Converting this expenditure into Bitcoin amounts to approximately 160,443 BTC, and at this rate of spending, existing Bitcoin reserves could only support approximately 12.3 days of expenses. The White House emphasized that Bitcoin reserves must not be sold, and pointed out that large-scale spending could trigger inflation, further increasing demand for Bitcoin.

Robert Kiyosaki is warning of a potentially historic stock market crash around 2026, which he attributes to structural issues that have persisted since the 2008 financial crisis. His recommended hedge assets include gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and oil to counter market volatility. Despite his mixed track record of predictions, his warnings have sparked widespread concern about financial stability.

Bitcoin has recently rebounded strongly to $71,480, the U.S. CFTC released market manipulation risk guidance and is seeking public comments, and the SEC chair called for establishing an innovation exemption mechanism for security tokenization. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase faces a class action lawsuit, crypto market volatility and investor sentiment are gradually stabilizing, with expectations for potentially positive developments ahead.

Robert Kiyosaki warned on X platform that 2026 will see the biggest stock market crash in history, and accused BlackRock of being a "Ponzi scheme." He advised investors to purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tangible assets like gold, even suggesting skipping meals to buy silver if lacking funds. He emphasized the importance of taking action and criticized current societal trends.

The Bank of Canada completed the "Project Samara" trial, successfully issuing 100 million CAD in tokenized government bonds, becoming the first case of bonds using distributed ledger technology. Participating institutions include multiple banks, aiming to improve financial market efficiency. The trial demonstrated that blockchain can shorten settlement times but requires overcoming regulatory challenges and exploring integration with existing systems. Financial institutions worldwide are increasingly concerned about tokenized assets, and Canada is also establishing a corresponding regulatory framework.

Due to the rise of stablecoins, traditional banks face medium-term risks of deposit outflows. Jefferies predicts that banks could lose 3% to 5% of core deposits within the next five years, which would impact bank profitability. Stablecoins have expanded into payments and corporate treasury management, with the market expected to grow significantly. Traditional financial institutions are actively deploying stablecoins to address these challenges, particularly as banks that rely on retail deposits will face greater risks.

Germany's longstanding rule allows Bitcoin holders to pay 0% capital gains tax if held for over a year, promoting long-term investment. Despite new EU transparency rules, this tax benefit remains a draw for investors.

Investor Robert Kiyosaki warns of a potential financial market collapse in 2026, citing unresolved issues from the 2008 crisis, rising global debt, and instability in private credit markets. He advises investors to consider safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies to mitigate risks.