Geopolitics

The global crypto market is down 1.60% to $2.38T amidst escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing declines. Notably, some smaller cryptocurrencies have surged. DeFi and NFT sectors show mixed trends, while regulatory developments emerge.

Jane Street made a record purchase of 20.6 million shares of silver ETF in the fourth quarter of 2024, becoming the largest shareholder, after which silver prices plummeted nearly 30%, triggering market manipulation suspicions. Although there is no direct evidence supporting this claim, the timing between the position disclosure and the price collapse aligns, sparking discussion. Jane Street has been accused of insider trading but denies the allegations, with its market influence and behavioral patterns remaining under scrutiny.

Nick Szabo emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin's trust-minimized security, warning that careless development could jeopardize its value. He also notes that Bitcoin is beginning to function as a global currency, particularly in developing nations with weaker currencies.

Iran issued new banknotes with a denomination of 10 million rials this week, but their actual purchasing power is only about $7, revealing severe inflation issues. In response to the impacts of war and sanctions, many people have faced long queues at banks to withdraw cash. Prolonged economic downturn and systemic corruption have further led to depreciation of the rial.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

Iran launched a missile attack targeting around the Israeli nuclear research center late on March 21, causing at least 7 people to be seriously injured and 64 hospitalized. Israel's missile defense system was unable to fully intercept the missiles, worsening the tense situation. This attack is seen as retaliation for Israel's bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, and geopolitical tensions continue to rise. The United Nations has stated that there are currently no radiation anomalies, but the risk still exists.

Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum this morning (22nd) demanding Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise the U.S. military will destroy Iran's power plants; following the announcement, Bitcoin plummeted rapidly to $68,000, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 9, indicating extreme market panic. (Background: Iran launched medium-range missiles at U.S. and British bases, missing but with a range of 4,000 kilometers, "double what intelligence estimated") (Context: Lai Ching-te approved: Nuclear Plants 2 and 3 "have conditions for restart," Taiwan's power shortage in the AI era cannot be sustained) Contents of this article Toggle Middle East conflict has been burning for over 4 weeks Bitcoin crashes to $68,000, liquidations of $236 million 48-hour countdown, market awaits three answers U.S. President Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social at 7:44 AM this morning (22nd)

Citigroup has lowered its target prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a cautious outlook on the medium-term prospects of the crypto market. The Bitcoin target price has been reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's has been lowered from $4,304 to $3,175, mainly due to slow progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation. Although there is still room for upward movement over the next year, the market may remain volatile in the short term, with Ethereum's valuation becoming more reliant on fundamentals.

Lawmakers and regulators are making progress on crypto policy, with a stablecoin yield proposal anticipated soon. The SEC and CFTC classified most crypto assets as non-securities, designating several as digital commodities.

Oil price surges have played a significant role in shaping global financial markets during periods of economic stress. One of the most well-known examples is the 1973 Oil Crisis, when sharp increases in oil prices triggered inflation, reduced economic activity, and led to a substantial decline in st

Iran confirmed on March 21 the launch of 2 medium-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia Island, a U.S.-UK allied military base, with a range exceeding 4,000 kilometers, marking its first strike capability demonstration outside the Middle East, though both missiles missed their targets. This action contradicted its external claims of limiting missile range to 2,000 kilometers, demonstrating its deterrence capability against the United States and its allies. Subsequently, oil prices rose to $119 per barrel as markets expressed concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Under Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin faced widespread selling pressure, particularly from retail holders. According to Glassnode data, the market is experiencing heavy selling pressure, with the accumulated trend score declining to 0.04, indicating that retail and small-to-medium investors are reducing their positions significantly. Despite this, Bitcoin's resilience against the decline has surprised market observers.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have impacted global financial markets. Gold plummeted more than 10% this week, marking its worst performance since 1983, while oil prices surged to historic highs. In contrast, Bitcoin rose against the trend, indicating a flow of capital toward crypto assets. The market continues to face uncertainty, and volatility in risk assets may persist.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

Gold has declined to $4,500 since late February 2026 due to geopolitical conflicts, with global capital markets in turmoil, the S&P 500 down 5%. U.S. Treasury yields are rising, safe-haven assets are underperforming, and capital flows into money market funds have reached historic highs, indicating a market preference for "cash is king." Bitcoin is experiencing volatility and has not yet established itself as a safe-haven asset.

The risk from quantum computing to Bitcoin investors is real, but not every wallet is vulnerable — and those with the capacity to address this issue are taking proactive steps, according to Galaxy Digital analyst Will Owens. Owens believes that in theory, quantum computers could potentially break the cryptographic security that underpins Bitcoin.

Citigroup has lowered its target prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a cautious outlook on the medium-term prospects of the crypto market. The Bitcoin target price has been reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's has been lowered from $4,304 to $3,175, mainly due to slow progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation. Although there is still room for upward movement over the next year, the market may remain volatile in the short term, with Ethereum's valuation becoming more reliant on fundamentals.

Rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict are heightening inflation concerns, affecting investor behavior and prompting risk aversion in markets, especially cryptocurrencies. Policymakers remain cautious, suggesting potential delays in rate cuts amid worsening inflation forecasts from the IMF.

Lawmakers and regulators are making progress on crypto policy, with a stablecoin yield proposal anticipated soon. The SEC and CFTC classified most crypto assets as non-securities, designating several as digital commodities.

Bitcoin declined to $70,000 due to steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve and rising energy prices, leading to $600 million in liquidations and increased market volatility, particularly affecting altcoins.

Facing energy supply disruptions and soaring oil prices in the Middle East region, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed 10 emergency measures to reduce oil demand in road transportation and other sectors. Recommendations include remote work for households, reducing highway speed limits, vehicle traffic restrictions, and reducing business air travel, with the aim of moderating inflationary pressure and stabilizing markets.

Since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, causing dramatic shifts in global capital markets. Gold and US Treasury bonds have shown weakening hedging effects, while the US S&P 500 Index has declined 4%, indicating asset repricing. Capital flows have moved toward money market funds with high liquidity, signaling that markets have entered a defensive "cash is king" phase. Bitcoin has posted modest gains but faces continued risks.

Against the backdrop of Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has faced a comprehensive sell-off with nearly all coin holders turning to net selling, most notably among retail investors. According to Glassnode data, the cumulative trend score has dropped to 0.04, indicating heavy selling pressure in the market. Small-cap holders and mid-sized investors are showing significant selling intensity, while whales, though reducing their holdings, are doing so at a lower rate. Despite the dismal data, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience against declines.

Morgan Stanley has pushed back its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to September and December, as oil price increases driven by Middle East geopolitical conflicts have raised inflation expectations and constrained the scope for accommodative policy. Market reaction shows weakening expectations for rate cuts, with the timing of future cuts dependent on inflation data and economic performance.

Alvaro Rosenblüth, treasury and exchange manager at Banco de Crédito de Bolivia, stated that the Central Bank of Bolivia lifted the ban on cryptocurrency operations out of necessity. Stablecoins are now acting as a dollar proxy, enabling remittances and payments to combat the dollar shortage. Boli

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

The UK has initiated dissolution proceedings against Zedxion Exchange due to the provision of false information in its company registration. An investigation revealed that the company was closely related to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and operated using fictitious identities. This dissolution represents the latest case of the UK strengthening regulatory oversight under new legislation, reflecting the country's efforts in combating sanctions evasion.

Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $112,000, primarily due to the stalled progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act in the Senate, which has dampened regulatory expectations. Meanwhile, Ethereum's price target was also adjusted to $3,175, facing dual pressure from policy delays and weakening on-chain activity. Analysts pointed out that future legislative opportunities are shrinking, and the market needs to recalibrate its risk assessment.

SEC Chair Atkins emphasized that the recently released crypto asset interpretive guidance is an important starting point for regulation, with the key next step being congressional legislation. The stablecoin bill is nearing completion, and the market structure bill is also progressing, both of which could improve the regulatory environment. However, administrative interpretations have limited stability, and true binding authority still requires legislation to ensure. Long-term regulation remains uncertain.

The Strait of Hormuz saw shipping traffic plummet 95% due to US-Israel military operations, triggering severe volatility in global energy markets. Gold fell for seven consecutive days, silver declined over 13%, while Bitcoin showed relative resilience, revealing different asset reactions during crises. International response measures to ensure shipping lane safety remain unclear, with the energy supply crisis signaling prolonged price increases.

Middle East conflicts impact the Strait of Hormuz, causing gold to fall for seven consecutive days and silver to plummet sharply. Bitcoin pulls back from highs but remains relatively resilient, with experts advising investors to exercise caution. Europe and Japan issue joint statements defending the shipping lanes, while Qatar's natural gas facilities come under attack, signaling a long-term rise in energy prices that may trigger global inflation concerns.

A JPMorgan report indicates that decentralized exchange Hyperliquid's WTI crude oil perpetual futures contracts have seen a significant surge in trading volume, primarily due to its ability to provide 24/7 trading during traditional market closures, attracting traders seeking immediate hedging. Hyperliquid's technical advantages and high leverage options have given it a competitive edge in the crypto derivatives market. While traditional exchanges are developing 24/7 trading capabilities, their product structures still differ from Hyperliquid's offerings.

Major League Baseball (MLB) has reached an exclusive partnership with decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, with a contract value of up to $300 million, marking a divergence in prediction market regulation. MLB's agreement with Polymarket and the CFTC highlights differing jurisdictional positions between federal and state authorities over prediction markets. If states prevail in litigation, the contract could be terminated to reduce legal liability, which also reflects prediction markets' gradual convergence toward mainstream finance.

Bitcoin has recently been affected by supply shocks and geopolitical pressures, with prices declining from their highs to approximately $69,500. Large volumes of bitcoin entering exchanges have triggered market panic. Major sellers include dormant wallets resuming activity and early investors taking profits. Technically, bitcoin has broken below the $72,000 support level, with $64,000 becoming a critical support level. A breach of this level could expose the asset to further downside risk.

The UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan released a joint statement on the 19th, committing to take "appropriate measures" for navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz, but did not specify concrete actions, leaving political flexibility. The statement condemned Iran's attacks on commercial vessels, demanded its compliance with international law, and supported increased production to stabilize energy markets. This declaration has sparked external scrutiny and analysis, particularly regarding the ambiguity of the term "appropriate measures."

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech prompted oil prices to decline and reduced market tension. The crypto market continued to weaken, with Bitcoin briefly falling below 69K. ETF outflows indicate institutional profit-taking, and the Fear and Greed Index has retreated into the fear zone.

Rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict are heightening inflation concerns, affecting investor behavior and prompting risk aversion in markets, especially cryptocurrencies. Policymakers remain cautious, suggesting potential delays in rate cuts amid worsening inflation forecasts from the IMF.

Bitcoin dropped below $69,000 amid a global sell-off fueled by rising Middle East tensions and soaring energy prices. This led to significant liquidations in leveraged positions and a decline in the overall crypto market.

Lawmakers and regulators are making progress on crypto policy, with a stablecoin yield proposal anticipated soon. The SEC and CFTC classified most crypto assets as non-securities, designating several as digital commodities.

Bitcoin declined to $70,000 due to steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve and rising energy prices, leading to $600 million in liquidations and increased market volatility, particularly affecting altcoins.

Yesterday, BTC fell from $73,000 to $71,000 due to declining US stocks and deteriorating Middle East conditions, with risk-off sentiment heating up in the market. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with Powell emphasizing that the US employment market and energy crisis make decision-making difficult, indicating uncertain economic prospects ahead that could impact both stock and crypto markets.

Against the backdrop of Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has faced a comprehensive sell-off with nearly all coin holders turning to net selling, most notably among retail investors. According to Glassnode data, the cumulative trend score has dropped to 0.04, indicating heavy selling pressure in the market. Small-cap holders and mid-sized investors are showing significant selling intensity, while whales, though reducing their holdings, are doing so at a lower rate. Despite the dismal data, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience against declines.

Bitcoin's network hashrate fell to 920 EH/s this week, with an estimated difficulty adjustment of approximately 8% on March 20th, marking the second-largest adjustment in five years. As the Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher, miner revenues have declined substantially, with hashrate prices hitting historic lows. Major mining operators have begun selling Bitcoin and pivoting toward AI computing power to cope with margin compression.

US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins proposed a new cryptocurrency asset regulatory framework that clarifies which tokens are not securities and simplifies compliance pathways through measures such as "startup exemptions" and "investment contract safe harbors," aimed at providing crypto enterprises with clearer fundraising guidance and signaling a policy shift in SEC oversight.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.75% in its March 19 decision and indicated that further rate hikes may be possible as the economic outlook improves. It particularly emphasized that oil price increases triggered by Middle East tensions will impact inflation. Market expectations suggest potential rate hikes could resume in May or July, with ongoing attention needed to the risks of yen carry trades.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 31 is 7%, indicating the market's pessimistic view on the conflict. The Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged and raised its inflation expectations for 2026, under which impact Bitcoin fell nearly 4% to $71,017. Market volatility simultaneously affected Brent crude oil and the stock market, demonstrating the complex situation resulting from the interweaving of various factors.