Fractal model predicts Bitcoin will hit bottom in October 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing positive signs of recovery, helping to improve market sentiment after a long period of volatility and downward pressure. However, many experts believe that the current upward trend is only short-term, and the risk of a deeper correction still exists this year.

According to Crypto Rover’s fractal model analysis, Bitcoin may establish the cycle bottom in 2026 if historical patterns continue to repeat.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

Crypto Rover explains that Bitcoin’s price movements typically follow a four-year cycle, originating from halving events — when mining rewards are cut in half, reducing the new supply entering the market. This mechanism has repeatedly driven price rallies before entering correction phases.

According to the model, each cycle consists of four distinct phases: accumulation, growth, distribution, and bear market. The accumulation phase occurs when prices are low, and investors begin building positions. This is followed by a growth phase with strong demand, rapidly pushing prices higher.

When the market enters the distribution phase, early investors start taking profits and transferring assets to new capital. Finally, a bear market forms, leading to sharp declines and resetting the cycle. This repeating structure is the foundation of the fractal model.

Why October 2026 Could Be a Key Turning Point

Data from the model indicates that the cycle peak likely occurred at the end of 2025, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October. As predicted, this peak was quickly followed by a sharp correction, coinciding with the market drop on October 11.

Currently, the market structure is believed to have shifted into a downtrend, gradually approaching the cycle bottom. Since the correction, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within large ranges but has not yet established a sustainable upward trend.

“Small Cycles” Explaining Short-Term Gains

At present, BTC is trading below $70,000, with slight daily declines but maintaining some growth for the month, despite weekly declines. This indicates that the market is showing some signs of localized recovery.

However, according to the fractal model, these short-term rallies do not negate the overall downtrend but merely reflect the existence of “small cycles” — short-term ups and downs repeating throughout the larger cycle.

These medium-term fluctuations often confuse investors: corrections during an uptrend can be mistaken for a complete collapse, while rebounds in a bear market can create false expectations.

Crypto Rover’s analysis emphasizes that the current positive signals are not sufficient to confirm a long-term bullish trend. Instead, they are likely just technical rebounds within a market still heading toward a deeper decline in the near future.