What are crypto "whales" buying and selling ahead of the March FOMC meeting?

As the global financial markets focus on the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March, predictions are almost certain that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. However, the spotlight is not only on the interest rate decision but also on the updated economic forecasts.

Against the backdrop of oil prices approaching $100 per barrel and diminishing expectations of rate cuts, the macroeconomic picture remains tense. Nevertheless, on-chain data shows that crypto whales have quietly taken strategic actions, focusing on specific tokens.

Experts from Coinphoton have identified three types of tokens experiencing strong accumulation or significant sell-offs ahead of the Fed’s decision.

Official Trump (TRUMP): Momentum from Major Events

Among the tokens attracting whale attention, Official Trump (TRUMP) is seeing a notable increase in trading activity among large wallets within the past 24 hours.

On-chain data indicates that large wallets have increased their holdings of TRUMP by 3.08%, bringing the total whale holdings to 4.03 million TRUMP, roughly 120,000 TRUMP accumulated in one day, valued at approximately $449,000 at current prices.

Investors holding shares and large investors: NansenAt the same time, TRUMP balances on exchanges have sharply decreased, suggesting that major investors are transferring TRUMP to personal wallets for long-term holding.

Two key factors are driving this accumulation momentum:

1. The FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady on March 18 was almost universally expected, while President Trump publicly called for an immediate rate cut, creating a positive market sentiment for TRUMP.
2. A lunch gala at Mar-a-Lago for 297 top TRUMP investors on April 25 has provided strong motivation for whales to accumulate and hold this token.

Technically, TRUMP has been trading within a downtrend channel since mid-January. Although attempts to break above the upper trendline occurred on March 13 and 14, the price has yet to surpass resistance levels. However, with new support from whales, another breakout could happen.

TRUMP Price Analysis | Source: TradingView To confirm an uptrend, TRUMP needs to break through key resistance levels at $4.24 and $4.61. Success could target higher levels such as $5.12 and $5.78. Forecasts suggest a potential 74% increase if it fully breaks out of the downtrend channel, with a target price of $7.39 before the April gala event.

However, if it fails to hold the critical support at $3.43, the bearish structure will remain dominant, delaying the recovery.

Zcash (ZEC): The Return of Privacy Cryptocurrency

Zcash (ZEC) is one of the tokens actively accumulated by whales ahead of the FOMC meeting. Over the past 24 hours, both whale and super whale groups have increased their holdings of ZEC.

On-chain data on Solana shows whale wallets increased their holdings by 12.43%, raising total holdings to 10,026 ZEC (roughly 1,109 ZEC bought in one day). Meanwhile, the top 100 addresses increased their holdings by 8%, bringing super whale total holdings to 47,087 ZEC, worth about $1.23 million at current prices.

ZEC Holders | Source: NansenInterest in ZEC is rising due to factors such as:

On the technical chart, ZEC has broken the inverse head and shoulders pattern with a downward-sloping neckline. This is a significant bullish signal, indicating buyers have overcome prolonged selling pressure.

Zcash Price Analysis | Source: TradingView This breakout forecasts approximately a 95% increase, targeting $431 (near the Fibonacci extension 1.618). To reach this, ZEC must conquer key resistance levels at $282 and $339. If it fails to hold support at $265, the price could fall to $226, and breaking below $191 would weaken the bullish structure entirely.

Pepe (PEPE): Selling Pressure Before Fed Decision

Contrary to TRUMP and ZEC, Pepe (PEPE) is experiencing a strong sell-off wave from crypto whales just before the FOMC meeting.

Data from Santiment shows that PEPE supply held by whales (excluding exchange holdings) decreased from 179.49 trillion PEPE on March 16 to 176.72 trillion PEPE, a sell-off of 2.77 trillion tokens. At the current price of $0.00000381, this equates to about $10.55 million sold by whales in 24 hours.

Whale Selling | Source: SantimentNotably, this sell-off occurred even as PEPE surged 16% over the past week. Instead of capitalizing on the rally, whales are reducing risk, especially since PEPE’s year-to-date performance remains negative at -5.2%.

On the technical chart, a hidden bearish divergence has appeared between December 9 and March 16. Specifically, the price made lower highs while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) made higher highs. This often signals a continuation of the downtrend.

PEPE Price Analysis | Source: TradingView To reverse this bearish signal, PEPE needs a strong breakout above $0.0000041, opening the way toward a target of $0.0000050. However, if the price drops below $0.0000036, the bearish signal will be confirmed, pushing the price toward lower support levels at $0.0000029 or even lower.

Conclusion

Ahead of the March FOMC meeting, the crypto market is witnessing dynamic movements as whales execute different accumulation or sell-off strategies. While TRUMP and ZEC show positive prospects driven by fundamental and technical factors, PEPE faces significant selling pressure, reflecting cautious sentiment among large investors amid macroeconomic risks.