宏观经济

地缘政治紧张局势和不断上升的不确定性导致全球市场出现风险厌恶情绪,投资者纷纷远离比特币和以太坊等资产。油价高企和通胀担忧影响了投资组合调整,随着短期持有者获利了结,比特币抛售压力增加。在情绪低迷的情况下,市场保持敏感状态。

伊朗本周发行面额1000万里亚尔的新钞，但实际购买力仅约7美元，显示通胀问题严重。因应战争与制裁影响，许多人在银行遭遇排长队取现的困境。长期经济不景气及系统性腐败进一步导致里亚尔贬值。

比特币近期触及7.5万美元，但未能持续，回落至7.4万美元，反映投资人对即将公布的Fed利率决策持谨慎态度。地缘政治风险和能源价格推高通胀，影响市场对降息的预期，导致降息时间推迟至年底。技术分析显示比特币仍强劲，但未确认有效突破7.5万美元关卡，短期内上涨空间有限。

近期白银价格的下跌，受全球市场波动和投资者情绪变化的驱动，引发了人们对更广泛市场影响的担忧。这次调整可能会影响资本在包括数字资产在内的各类资产之间的配置。

石油价格飙升在经济压力时期对塑造全球金融市场发挥了重要作用。最著名的例子之一是1973年石油危机，当时油价的急剧上升引发了通货膨胀、经济活动减少，并导致

比特币近期触及7.5万美元，但未能持续，回落至7.4万美元，反映投资人对即将公布的Fed利率决策持谨慎态度。地缘政治风险和能源价格推高通胀，影响市场对降息的预期，导致降息时间推迟至年底。技术分析显示比特币仍强劲，但未确认有效突破7.5万美元关卡，短期内上涨空间有限。

比特币的宏观风险源于金融系统内流动性缓冲几近耗尽,而非油价波动。随着美联储逆回购机制失效,比特币对宏观流动性的依赖性上升,引发了对潜在市场冲击及其影响的担忧。

黄金自2026年2月底因地缘冲突下跌至4500美元，全球资本市场动荡，标普500指数下跌5%。美债收益率上升，避险资产表现疲软，资金流向货币市场基金达到历史新高，显示市场倾向“现金为王”。比特币波动，尚未成为避险资产。

由于美伊冲突导致的油价上升加重了通胀担忧，影响投资者行为并促使市场出现风险厌恶情绪，特别是在加密货币领域。决策者保持谨慎态度，暗示在国际货币基金组织恶化通胀预测的背景下，可能会延迟降息。

面对中东地区能源供应中断与油价飙涨，国际能源署（IEA）提出10项应急措施，以减少道路运输等领域的石油需求。建议包括家庭远端工作、降低高速公路速限、车辆限行及减少商务航空旅行等，以期平抑通胀压力并稳定市场。

This text is already in Simplified Chinese. Returning it unchanged: 自2026年2月底美以對伊朗展開軍事行動以來，中東地緣政治風險上升，全球資本市場劇變。黃金和美債避險效果減弱，而美國標普500指數下跌4%，顯示資產重估。資金流向高流動性的貨幣市場基金，顯示市場進入「現金為王」的防禦性階段。比特幣漲幅微小，但面臨持續風險。

摩根士丹利将联准会降息预期推迟至9月及12月，因中东地缘冲突引发的油价上涨推升通膨预期，压缩了宽松政策的空间。市场反应显示对降息的期待减弱，未来的降息时机将取决于通膨数据与经济表现。

比特币近期触及7.5万美元，但未能持续，回落至7.4万美元，反映投资人对即将公布的Fed利率决策持谨慎态度。地缘政治风险和能源价格推高通胀，影响市场对降息的预期，导致降息时间推迟至年底。技术分析显示比特币仍强劲，但未确认有效突破7.5万美元关卡，短期内上涨空间有限。

比特币价格急剧回落至约70,400美元；贝莱德的以太坊质押基金首周管理资产超过2.5亿美元，质押率高达95%。摩根士丹利则提交现货比特币ETF的修订案。美股因地缘政治影响大幅下跌，市场信心低迷，建议控制杠杆比例以避险。

由于美伊冲突导致的油价上升加重了通胀担忧，影响投资者行为并促使市场出现风险厌恶情绪，特别是在加密货币领域。决策者保持谨慎态度，暗示在国际货币基金组织恶化通胀预测的背景下，可能会延迟降息。

特朗普呼吁美联储立即召开特别会议降息，强调当前是行动时机，并提及低利率有助于减少国债偿还成本及刺激经济。尽管他施压，但市场对此次降息预期仍偏低，美联储面临通胀及油价上升的挑战，可能不会迅速调整政策。加密市场则已消化不降息的预期，关注焦点在于美联储未来的政策走向。

昨日BTC从7.3万美元跌至7.1万美元，因美股下跌及中东局势恶化，市场避险情绪升温。联准会利率维持不变，鲍威尔强调美国就业市场和能源危机使决策困难，显示未来经济不明朗，可能影响股市和币市。

比特币近期触及7.5万美元，但未能持续，回落至7.4万美元，反映投资人对即将公布的Fed利率决策持谨慎态度。地缘政治风险和能源价格推高通胀，影响市场对降息的预期，导致降息时间推迟至年底。技术分析显示比特币仍强劲，但未确认有效突破7.5万美元关卡，短期内上涨空间有限。

US national debt broke through $39 trillion in early March, reigniting discussions about fiscal stability. Budget deficits and large-scale spending programs have accelerated debt expansion, causing government interest expenditures to squeeze investment space. This situation has sparked market interest in assets like Bitcoin, though their short-term trends are not necessarily stable. Policymakers face choices in cutting spending, raising taxes, or continuing borrowing, with structural reforms viewed as a long-term solution, but implementation is challenging.

U.S. federal debt exceeded $39 trillion for the first time, with the 30-year Treasury yield climbing to nearly 4.9%. Despite deteriorating fiscal prospects, overseas holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased by $34.8 billion in January, showcasing robust foreign demand for U.S. debt. Analysts point out that holdings of U.S. Treasuries are valued not only for their yields but also for their unparalleled liquidity. The complex signals sent by high debt and high yields will influence future market direction.

3月18日，伊朗攻擊卡达拉斯拉凡工业城，全球重要的液化天然气(LNG)设施，市场担忧能源供应中断，油价上涨。此事件引发系统性供应风暴，影响航空、物流和消费品行业，加密货币市场可能因避险情绪波动，长期或受益于量化宽松政策。卡达和日本在供应中断中尤为脆弱，供应链应对将受到考验。

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chair Powell pointing to war-related uncertainties affecting inflation. U.S. stock indices declined, and Bitcoin temporarily pulled back to $70,500. February PPI rose beyond expectations, oil surged to $107, intensifying inflation concerns. Market confidence remains incomplete, though institutional capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs signal improving sentiment.

This text is already in Simplified Chinese. According to your instructions, I should return it exactly the same unchanged. 加密市場在18日晚遭遇暴跌，比特幣跌破71,000美元，以太坊跌落2,200美元。導致原因包括美國PPI數據超出預期，降低了聯準會降息的可能性；中東戰火升級增加地緣政治風險；以及美國國會對加密法規的僵局。市場情緒因此受到重創，僅4小時內就有11萬人爆倉，損失達3億美元。

3月18日晚間，加密市場遭遇劇烈波動，比特幣和以太坊價格大跌，全球清算金額逼近3億美元，超過10萬名投資者遭強制平倉。市場對聯準會利率政策和地緣政治影響敏感，多頭槓桿部位集中，觸發踩踏效應。即便在去中心化交易平台，巨額虧損事件提醒市場風險依然存在。

比特币近期触及7.5万美元，但未能持续，回落至7.4万美元，反映投资人对即将公布的Fed利率决策持谨慎态度。地缘政治风险和能源价格推高通胀，影响市场对降息的预期，导致降息时间推迟至年底。技术分析显示比特币仍强劲，但未确认有效突破7.5万美元关卡，短期内上涨空间有限。

Iran conflict leads to Hormuz Strait blockade, impacting global fertilizer supply chains and other markets. Urea prices have risen to $601, affecting agricultural production costs. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil approaches $90, and Bitcoin has also risen due to safe-haven demand, demonstrating market interconnectedness. Urea price increases are mainly due to production reliance on natural gas, with the blockade directly affecting transportation routes.

比特幣近期下跌的原因包括伊朗戰時官員拉裏賈尼身亡引發的地緣衝突不確定性，霍爾木茲海峽封鎖推高油價至100美元以上，加劇通膨壓力及聯準會降息預期減少，還有機構資本的撤離。技術面上，72,000美元是重要支撐點，一旦跌破可能進一步下探至64,000美元。

特朗普呼吁美联储立即召开特别会议降息，强调当前是行动时机，并提及低利率有助于减少国债偿还成本及刺激经济。尽管他施压，但市场对此次降息预期仍偏低，美联储面临通胀及油价上升的挑战，可能不会迅速调整政策。加密市场则已消化不降息的预期，关注焦点在于美联储未来的政策走向。

加密市场在美国柴油和汽油价格上升的背景下实现增长。BTC和ETH领导这一上升趋势，黄金和白银也出现涨幅。然而，由于通胀担忧和地缘政治因素，市场波动仍然存在。

美国加密货币现货 ETF 上周明显回暖，比特币和以太币分别录得约 7.634 亿美元及 1.609 亿美元的净流入，价格也随之反弹。虽然市场显示出增量买盘信号，但未来仍面临央行政策及地缘政治风险的变数。市场将持续关注 ETF 资金流入及宏观经济影响。

Wall Street analyst Tom Lee predicts the US stock market will experience a 20% crash after reaching new highs, while believing high oil prices are actually beneficial to US stocks. He points out that speculative bubbles in the market have been cleared, making tech stocks a good buying opportunity on dips at this stage. Additionally, after experiencing a crypto winter, speculative behavior in the cryptocurrency market has significantly decreased.

美伊冲突第三周，霍尔木兹海峡几近关闭，油价突破每桶100美元，影响全球石油供应。川普表示战争结束将依据他的"骨子里的感觉"，金融市场面临不确定性，油价上涨可能推高美国通胀，避险资产如黄金及比特币的表现也受到影响。

加密货币价格正在恢复，以太坊(ETH)领涨7.56%。随着消费者情绪因个人财务和地缘政治问题担忧而下降，市场对美联储9月份可能降息的预期不断增强。

在美国加密货币现货ETF资金回流影响下，比特币价格上周回稳并触及73,927美元的高点，涨幅约6%至7%。以太币亦反弹，显示市场风险偏好回升。ETF资金流入成为主要支撑因素，尽管宏观市场情绪波动，但对通胀及油价风险的缓解发言有助于稳定价格。

霍尔木兹海峡的地缘政治紧张可能影响比特币及加密货币市场。若运输中断,能源价格攀升、通胀上升将使金融市场紧缩,投资人降低风险资产敞口。比特币偏向风险资产,受影响后可能出现短期下行压力,未平仓合约及资金费率将成为重要指标,提示市场风险。

Since September 2025, the DeFi market has entered a "rate winter," with mainstream stablecoin deposit APYs falling to historic lows, and supply-demand imbalances leading to excess liquidity. As lending demand declines, stablecoin borrowing rates have correspondingly fallen, and risk appetite in the crypto market has diminished, with investors shifting toward more stable assets. Some protocols like Sky are providing stable yields through real-world assets, but the overall trend still points toward DeFi adjustment and structural reform.

美国1月核心PCE物价指数年率为3.1%，保持在高档，加强了联准会"利率维持高位更久"的预期，可能对加密市场造成宏观压力。服务与商品价格均上升，导致通膨黏性问题未见改善。分析师指出此次上升可能受季节性因素影响，不过市场仍需警惕短期波动风险。

The US is about to release the January PCE price index, with core PCE expected to increase 3.1% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since 2024, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Due to different weighting of items, CPI and PCE have shown divergence in trends, and PCE's "moderate" convention is also being challenged, which may affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the future.

MOVE指数在3月12日单日上涨21%，显示出通胀担忧蔓延至全球债券市场。比特币和以太坊的选择权数据显示市场情绪偏保守，看跌比率上升。尽管金融风险增加，加密市场的隐含波动率相对稳定，但若美债波动性继续提高，可能对加密市场构成压力。总体来看，市场目前对风险资产仍然存在谨慎态度。

泡沫威胁 "愚蠢"的宏观数据 传奇投资者斯坦利·德拉肯米勒预测，加密货币最终可能取代美元成为全球储备货币 德拉肯米勒对美元在50年后保持其备受追捧地位的能力表示怀疑 "我确实

The U.S. government recently revealed that the initial six days of the U.S.-Iran conflict cost $11.3 billion, which is equivalent to approximately 48.9% of its Bitcoin holdings. Converting this expenditure into Bitcoin amounts to approximately 160,443 BTC, and at this spending rate, existing Bitcoin reserves could only support approximately 12.3 days of expenditures. The White House emphasized that Bitcoin reserves must not be sold, and pointed out that massive government spending could trigger inflation, further driving up demand for Bitcoin.

Robert Kiyosaki warned that the largest stock market crash in history could occur around 2026, which is related to structural issues that have persisted since the 2008 financial crisis. His recommended hedge assets include gold, silver, bitcoin, ethereum, and oil to counter market volatility. Despite his mixed track record of predictions, it has still drawn widespread attention to financial stability concerns.

比特币近期强劲反弹至71,480美元，美国CFTC发布市场操纵风险指引并征求公众意见，SEC主席呼吁制定证券代币化创新豁免机制。此外，摩根大通面临集体诉讼，加密市场波动和投资者情绪逐渐稳定，预期未来可能出现利好情形。

Robert Kiyosaki warned on X platform that 2026 will see the biggest stock market crash in history, accusing BlackRock of being a "Ponzi scheme." He advised investors to purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and physical assets like gold, even suggesting skipping a meal to buy silver if lacking funds. He emphasized the importance of taking action and criticized current social attitudes.

加拿大央行完成「Project Samara」试验，成功发行1亿加币代币化政府债券，成为首例使用分散式账本技术的债券案例。参与机构包括多家银行，旨在提升金融市场效率。试验显示区块链可缩短结算时间，但需克服监管挑战，并探索与现有系统的整合。各国金融机构对代币化资产的关注持续升高，加拿大也在建立相应的监管架构。

Due to the rise of stablecoins, traditional banks face medium-term risks of deposit outflows. Jefferies predicts potential losses of 3% to 5% of core deposits within the next five years, which will impact bank profitability. Stablecoins have expanded into payments and corporate treasury management, with the market expected to grow significantly. Traditional financial institutions are actively deploying stablecoins to address these challenges, with banks relying on retail deposits facing greater risks.

德国长期以来的规则允许比特币持有者在持有超过一年的情况下支付0%资本利得税,这促进了长期投资。尽管出台了新的欧盟透明度规则,但这一税收优惠仍然对投资者具有吸引力。