XRP Rebounds on Geopolitical Relief, But Structure Still Bearish

XRP is attempting a short-term recovery, climbing nearly 3% to around $1.48 after finding support near $1.36. The bounce comes as risk sentiment improves following US President Donald Trump’s decision to pause planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, easing immediate geopolitical tensions.

The temporary de-escalation has helped stabilize broader crypto sentiment. Over the weekend, markets were under pressure after threats of attacks on Iranian energy assets raised fears of supply disruption, pushing oil prices above $100. With the pause announcement, oil has cooled back toward $88, reducing inflation concerns and supporting risk assets like crypto.

On the institutional side, XRP is seeing mild support. Spot XRP ETFs in the US recorded small inflows of $1.98 million on Friday, with weekly averages around $635,000. While not aggressive, the return of inflows suggests sentiment is stabilizing. Cumulative inflows now stand at $1.21 billion, with total net assets at $1.01 billion.

From a technical standpoint, XRP remains in a clear downtrend on the 2H chart, continuing to print lower highs and lower lows after rejecting near $1.50. The recent move below $1.42 was quickly bought up, indicating demand at lower levels, but this appears to be a reactive bounce rather than a confirmed reversal.

Price is currently attempting to hold above the $1.44–$1.45 zone, which aligns with the 50 EMA. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.46–$1.47, where the 100 EMA and prior supply converge. As long as price trades below this region, upside remains capped.

Momentum indicators are showing early signs of recovery. RSI is pushing higher and MACD has flipped positive, both supporting the case for a short-term bounce.

Key levels to watch:
Resistance: $1.47–$1.48, then $1.50
Support: $1.42–$1.426, then $1.35

If XRP sustains above $1.42, a move toward $1.47–$1.48 is likely. However, rejection from that resistance zone would reinforce the broader bearish structure, opening the door for a drop toward $1.40 and potentially $1.35.

Overall, this is still a relief bounce within a downtrend. A decisive break and hold above $1.50 is required to shift the structure toward a bullish reversal.

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